Is the Economy Really Up?

The President said a rousing "Yes!" when the 3rd quarter growth in GNP of 3.5 % (annual) was reported this week. The real answer is more like "yes." The numbers were driven by the government subsidized "cash-for-clunkers" program and the incentives for first-time home buyers. Both of these programs have ended, however, so unless they are reauthorized, the 4th quarter will likely see a fall off in the growth curve. Having said that, even if you exclude autos from the manufacturing sector, there was still a positive tilt to the numbers at 1.1 % annual growth and housing starts were up 1.5 % (although down again for September as reported late this week).

The U.S. economy is a big and resilient economy which will flourish if given half a chance. Until business is assured, though, that it is not going to get creamed with new healthcare costs, taxes, and the massive disguised tax increase known as "cap-and-trade", you can expect that there will be no robust expansion and therefore the unemployment figures will remain high. The banks are also sitting on their dollars and credit remains tight. Unless we address these issues and let individuals keep more of their earnings by lowering taxes, the outlook is for a continued anemic economy and, if inflation gets started, a repeat of the stagflation of the Nixon and Carter years.

skepticalspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/09/economic-data-point-to-third-quarter.html

What We Are Becoming

C.S. Lewis said that there are no ordinary people. The people we pass on the street are either on their way to becoming figures of surpassing beauty or monsters hideous beyond all imagining. I cannot keep this comment out of my mind when I read an article like the one below. A Swiss cosmetic manufacturer is using skin cells from an aborted baby for a cream to make women more "beautiful." Really? I wonder if God agrees.

www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=114251

What a Novel Idea!

Syndicated columnist Kenn Connor titled his recent column, "End of Life Care Should Not End Life." The hospice movement, for example, has always been about treating individuals nearing the end of their lives with dignity and respect, not discarding them like a used kleenex. Government health care in England is favoring the latter approach because elderly patients are only viewed as a drain on resources, not as human beings. The same mindset can creep into private insurance carriers as well. We are all made in God's image and we need to fight against this utilitarian approach that treats people as blobs of red ink. Read the column and think about it.

townhall.com/columnists/KenConnor/2009/10/25/end_of_life_care_should_not_end_life

Getting Into Training

I originally sat down to write this as a rebuttal to a Statesman Journal editorial which was against reinstating the Portland/Salt Lake City/Denver Pioneer because of cost. We rode this particular train in 1981 on the way to Chicago and thoroughly enjoyed the journey through Eastern Oregon, across Idaho and into Utah. I have always loved riding trains and believe that they are a very cost effective mode of transport in many situations. But I then made the "mistake" of reading the background report analyzing the cost to re-open this service. Especially in this country's economic circumstances, I am afraid it is a no-go.

The numbers show that it would take upwards of $400 million in capital improvements to get the Pioneer rolling again. I think that the estimate is probably high but even at half that number, it is a lot. Moving on to operating cost recovery, the train is only projected to recover 20-30% of its costs, which is much lower than the Amtrak average of 50% or so for other trains. This is a function of the low population density along most of the route.

In dense markets of up to about 500 miles, like Salem - Portland - Seattle, trains are a very efficient way of moving people. Adding a second or third track is much less expensive than adding freeway lanes and taking people off the increasingly jammed I-5 and whisking them quickly, comfortably and economically back and forth to Seattle is a laudable goal. Alas, the same economics are not there for the long hauls across the empty spaces of the American West.

For long distance trains to make it on the long, thin Western routes, they are going to have to be recast as land cruises like a cruise ship or combined with on-board carriage of passengers' autos like the Auto Train on the East Coast, or both. Until that time, and to my sorrow, trains like the Pioneer will remain a dream from the past and the auto or the jet will have to do. Vaya con Dios!

Soul Food

Daily Guideposts had a nice column today about Proverbs 16:24:

Pleasant words are a honeycomb, sweet to the soul and healing to the bones.

Notice that it applies to both the speaker and the listener - soul food for both. Try a kind word to someone else today and feed them and you!

What Might Have Been

The awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to President Obama is one of those things that goes under the Dave Barry category of "I am not making this up." Many commentators of all political persuasions have sliced and diced this, so I will not do so. I would like to discuss, however, what might have been.

Morgan Tsvangirai was one of the other nominees for the Nobel Peace Prize. He is the Prime Minister of Zimbabwe, the personal playground of Thug-for-Life Robert Mugabe. Under Mugabe's rule, this former British colony (Rhodesia) that was one of Africa's success stories has been reduced to grinding poverty, suffered from 1,000,000% inflation, and seen the death or exodus of many of its best and brightest. Tsvangirai has been fighting Mugabe within the system for almost 10 years trying to turn this around and change life for Zimbabweans. he linked the local currency to the U.S. dollar and immediately broke the hyperinflation. The economy is showing signs of life. But in the process, he has experienced extreme personal tragedy. His wife was killed in a car crash that many believe was engineered by Mugabe. Two weeks later, his grandson drowned. Tsvangirai perseveres, though, and perhaps he will one day triumph and bring Zimbabwe back into the fold of civilized nations.

Here is a man who has toiled for peace. A Nobel prize would have given him stature in his own country and the world and brought Zimbabwe's plight to the world's attention. Mugabe would be less likely to do away with a Nobel prize winner than a mere political rival. It is sad to think what might have been.

www.newsweek.com/id/216212

Ms. Liberal - Meet Mr. Reality

What happens when a liberal actually encounters the reality of the healthcare "reforms" they have been pitching to the rest of us? Reality wins - sort of. This article is written by a speechwriter for major Democratic politicians and contrasts the health care she got from her private D.C.-based health carrier versus the non-care she received after a move to the People's Republic of Massachusetts and its reform-style coverage. She now realizes that her private-care coverage was far better than the non-coverage in Massachusetts. Interestingly, although she calls for starting over in healthcare and proceeding slowly and carefully, she still is willing to drink the Kool Aid of a single-payer system like Medicare. Medicare "works" because it has a projected deficit of $1.1 trillion in the 2003-2012 period (Congressional Budget Office) and even so, ask a lot of users and medical providers how well it "works." Far be it for me, though, to dilute her Kool Aid. All we can do is pray that she will complete the rest of her journey to reality.

www.politicsdaily.com/2009/10/08/health-care-speechwriter-for-edwards-obama-and-clinton-doesnt

Two Foreign Policy "Coups" for Obama

You have to give credit where credit is due and President Obama scored two big triumphs for his new foreign policy initiatives this week. When you're hot, you're hot!

First, we canceled our anti-missile system in Eastern Europe designed to protect against Iranian nuclear blackmail of Western Europe to enlist Russian support in changing Iran's course. In a clear response to this U.S. initiative, Czar Putin said that the Big Bad West shouldn't even talk about sanctions against Iran because it just scares the little fellas (mullahs?) to death. I love it when a plan comes together!
in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-43160620091014

But wait, that's not all! Remember that President O just got the Nobel Peace Prize for his "vision" of a nuclear-free world? That's right, if we just get rid of our nukes, everybody else will feel warm and fuzzy and we can sit around the campfire and sing "Kum-bah-yah." Oh wait - it's not the glow of a campfire at all but the remains of a city nuked by the Russians because their military issued a new doctrine this week providing for the preemptive use of nuclear weapons. Oh well, whatever - don't worry, be happy!

www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9BAUJ680&show_article=1

Places You Should See - The Painted Hills

I just re-read my last two postings and had to admit - I need to lighten up! So I will. Here is a place you should visit: The Painted Hills. They lie about an hour east of Prineville just off Highway 26 and are drop-dead gorgeous. The colors are from metal oxides that are exposed. Geologically they are from near the earth's bedrock but were upthrust over many intervening and newer strata and are now visible. The best time to view them is when the sun is on a relatively low angle in the west, so late afternoon or early evening. You can hike the area and get close to the formations, although not touch them. I bet I haven't talked to 1 in 10 Oregonians who have been here or even known that they existed, but it is a site that every Oregonian should see.

Did You Know That?

"... in the 1930's the jobless rate averaged 18.7% over a ten year span. (1931-41) During this period the government dramatically increased taxes and spending, created numerous new laws and regulations to hamstring business, demonized capitalism and granted nearly unlimited powers to unions. Only with the onset of World War II did job creation begin." Does any of this sound familiar?

www.americanthinker.com/2009/10/is_there_really_a_recovery_on.html

Why the Falling Dollar Matters

American politicians think in terms of the next election; the Chinese think in terms of the next century. An excellent article in the Wall Street Journal analyzes the debtor-creditor relationship between the U.S. and China and where it is likely to lead in the next 20 years, using the historical example of what happened to the British after WW II. In brief, after the British pound tanked just after the war, we refused to bail them out. As a result, the U.S. took over as the preeminent economic power in the world, which is exactly where China will be in 20 years if we continue our folly of massive and unchecked deficit spending.

The sobering thought is that China in 2030 will not be the benign power that the United States was after WW II. This is a country that has killed 65-70 million of its own people, runs over its students with tanks (see my 10/6/09 blog post) and is currently raping Tibet. I suspect that even now plans are being laid in Beijing to manage the transition.

So p-a-r-t-y America while you can, just like the old Greek Epicureans: eat, drink and be merry for tomorrow we die! As the Bible explains: "For the time will come when men will not put up with sound doctrine. Instead, to suit their own desires, they will gather around them a great number of teachers to say what their itching ears want to hear." 2 Tim. 4:3. Apparently this is just such a time.


online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704107204574469073847604010.html

Jesus, Mary and Joey

This is a nice small movie with a substantive plot line. The film is set in Providence, RI. Joey comes from an Italian family and meets Mary ("Scary Mary"), an Irish girl that he went to grade school with who has moved back to town after many years. Both are Catholic, but her faith has become vibrant because she was miraculously healed, while Joey's faith is more cultural than personal. God works in strange ways, though, and it is a quiet pleasure watching him come to a deeper faith in Christ and a deeper relationship with Mary and the ramifications it causes in their lives. There are some actors you will recognize; Olympia Dukakis, Charles Durning, and the father from television's The Wonder Years as the priest, but the lead actors are relatively unknown and do a nice job with their roles. A blockbuster it's not, but it is a good choice for a winter evening's viewing. (Caveat: this film depicts modern life and some of its coarseness. There is some swearing and sexual talk, but no nudity.)

Treacherous Friend - A Followup on Honduras

I did a post on July 1, 2009 about the situation in Honduras. Then President Zelaya was making his Hugo Chavez-backed move to become President-for-Life and join the Latin American leftist thugocracy headed by Chavez. The Honduran Supreme Court ordered him out and directed the military to escort him out of the country, which it did. Inexplicably, we lined up with Castro, Chavez, and other tinhorns and called it a "coup" demanding that Zelaya be returned to power.

A recent report on developments in Honduras by Senator Demint (R.- SC) shows that most of the country is united behind the interim government and does not want Zelaya back. Demint is mystified at the U.S. position and has tried to get an explanation from the Obama Administration but to no avail.

online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703298004574459762462353766.html

Particularly telling is the fact that the Obama Administration won't release the legal basis for its position supposedly drafted by the State Department's top lawyer, even to a U.S. Senator. A lengthy legal analysis of the Honduran situation has been performed, however, by the Library of Congress and it found that the Honduran government had followed its Constitution in removing Zelaya. The New Republic's (a center/left journal) James Kirchick has reviewed the Library of Congress analysis and made the following observations:

" The events of the past several months reveal a lack of consistency in Obama’s approach to various foreign conflicts. How does this administration justify its recognition of results of elections in Pakistan, Iraq, and other countries mired in constitutional disputes, but now refuse to recognize an election in Honduras, even if it is conducted in a free and fair manner? And why give greater diplomatic dignity to the representatives of Iran--who have no legitimacy whatsoever--and not those of democratic Honduras? Even after blatantly stealing the presidential election, the White House referred to Ahmadinejad as the "the elected leader" of Iran (which White House spokesman Robert Gibbs later had to retract).

In the immediate wake of Honduras’s constitutional crisis, it was understandable that the administration, caught by surprise, might jump the gun in its denunciation of the military action as a "coup." Now, three months later and with legal repudiation from within its own government, U.S. policy has become a mistake in search of a rationale. "

www.tnr.com/article/politics/ousting-zelaya

The real question is whether it really was a mistake or an example of a new American policy. If Honduras was an isolated example, I would be more charitable, but it appears to fit into a larger, if still hazy, policy of betraying our friends and rewarding our enemies. The weasel has landed.

The Fig Leave Blows Away - America is Bugging Out

Charles Krauthammer blows away the fig leave explaining the delay by Obama in responding to his top general's request for more troops in Afganistan. Supposedly it is because they are settling on a new strategy - and you need a strategy before you decide on the resources to implement it. Sounds great, but wait - the President announced a "comprehensive strategy" for Afghanistan 6 months ago:


"Obama's handpicked commander requested on Aug. 30 -- a surge of 30,000 to 40,000 troops to stabilize a downward spiral and save Afghanistan the way a similar surge saved Iraq.

That was more than five weeks ago. Still no response. Obama agonizes publicly as the world watches. Why? Because, explains national security adviser James Jones, you don't commit troops before you decide on a strategy.

No strategy? On March 27, flanked by his secretaries of defense and state, the president said this: 'Today I'm announcing a comprehensive new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan.' He then outlined a civilian-military counterinsurgency campaign to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan."

I hope you will read the rest of the article to see what the Democrats are really about, whether in foreign policy or domestic affairs. They are inept as a foe and treacherous as a friend and now that is the label with which America is being tarred. Ask the Afghans, the Israelis, the Iraqis, the Hondurans - the list will grow. Our new national symbol is the weasel, not the eagle.

townhall.com/columnists/CharlesKrauthammer/2009/10/09/young_hamlets_agony

Green Beer Not Green Jobs

Stein isn't exactly an Irish name, but I like green beer as much as the next guy on St. Paddy's Day. This whole "green jobs" thing has got my goat though. Politicians from Kulongoski to Obama have been touting green jobs as the salvation of our battered economy. Did you know that Spain has been at this for awhile and the results aren't quite as advertised. Consider:

"Obama is promoting "green jobs," as if producing energy more expensively would help the economy. If Spain's experience with subsidies for wind and solar production is any indication, net jobs will be lost, not gained. A study by Gabriel Calzada, economics professor at Madrid's King Juan Carlos University, calculated that Spain lost 2.2 jobs in other industries for every government-subsidized green job that was created." (emphasis added).

I can hardly wait. What will they do next to "help" us?


www.americanthinker.com/2009/10/exit_strategy_from_the_great_r.html

Who's the Big Bad Wolf?

Newspapers are awash with letters from liberals that we need a public healthcare option because the big bad private insurance companies are denying claims wholesale to fatten their wallets. Now don't get me wrong - I don't like it either when I have what I think is a legitimate claim denied, but guess who is the biggest, baddest denier of health claims? That's right - MEDICARE! Let's jump out of the frying pan and into the fire, shall we?

blog.heritage.org/2009/10/06/medicare-largest-denier-of-health-care-claims/#

What's the Big Deal About the Sanhedrin?

One of my many followers - OK, it was Clover - asked why the Sanhedrin being reconstituted was worthy of note. The answer, beyond the historical significance, is that the chief job of the Sanhedrin was to operate the Temple. If the Sanhedrin is newly reformed, logically the Third Temple can't be too far behind. Apparently there have been meetings since 2005 to begin planning for just that. Since the Muslim Dome of the Rock is there, the political implications are pretty serious. You might also take a look at Ezekiel 37-38 too. Nobody knows the time or place, but we are called to know the season.

A Day to Remember

Red China just celebrated its 60th birthday complete with a giant birthday candle - the Empire State Building. The "red" in Red China is appropriate because it killed 65-70 million of its own people for various and sundry reasons - they just weren't a good "fit" with the new government. As recently as Tienanmen Square the world was treated to the spectacle of tanks running over students protesting government policies. Red China is a world power and we have no choice but to deal with it, but we had better know what we are dealing with or it will be at our peril.


townhall.com/columnists/DrPaulKengor/2009/10/05/a_teachable_moment_on_communist_china

The Chickens Come Home to Roost

This is a huge story and it's reported, of course, in a British newspaper rather than a U.S. daily. The dollar has been the standard world currency since the end of WW II. It has been relatively stable and the medium of international trade. Because we have trashed our economy the dollar has also become more like the peso, losing much of its stability and value. As a consequence, the big trading nations, particularly China and the Gulf States, are moving away from the dollar to a new international trade currency.

So what? Well, how does economic warfare sound to you? When the dollar was the world standard other countries were reluctant to engage in such activities against the U.S. because to do so would imperil the value of their own holdings which were in dollars. If a new currency becomes the standard, then let's say China or Venezuela, if they were so inclined (and they are), could much more easily make a run against the dollar and cripple our economy. The dollar will become much more like the Mexican peso or other second tier states with much more volatility. Your savings could lose half their value in a week or two. What a nice thought! All your hard work wiped out because Hugo Chavez hates gringos and decides to act out.

Be sure to thank our wonderful politicians for bringing us to this new and not improved state of affairs. What's even scarier is that a majority of them think that we haven't deficit spent nearly enough and have all kinds of plans to spend even more. It will be interesting living in the United Banana Republic.

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-demise-of-the-dollar-1798175.html

Hmmm...

I totally missed this one:

JEWISH SANHEDRIN RE-ESTABLISHED - On October 13, the Sanhedrin, the highest tribunal of the Jewish state and religion, was re-inaugurated by a group of rabbis in Tiberias after 1,600 years of absence. According to Jewish sources, last notice of the Sanhedrin dates around 425 A.D., also in the city of Tiberias. After that, it ceased to exist (Israel National News online edition, October 13, 2004).

Boomers Head for the Sticks Not the City

This story has some interesting long term implications for Oregon's land use scheme if the trend it covers continues. The Oregon land use system is premised on much higher urban densities to keep rural agricultural/forest areas free of population pressure. One of the assumptions is also that people will retire to urban areas. The emerging trend covered in the story, though, says that retiring boomers are moving to the country, not the city. The potential fly-in-the-ointment for the land use system is that the boomers also have the time, money, expertise, and political savvy to effectively fight back when they encounter the bureaucratic obstacles that have been erected to frustrate use of rural areas for anything but crops or trees. This could be a counterrevolution in the making, albeit one that will be under the radar until enough boomers have made the move.

www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2009/10/a_generation_of_baby_boomers_g.html

I Never Was Much of a Fan

"Garrison Keillor, the "Lake Wobegon" author and National Public Radio icon, is offering a solution to a couple of the nation's problems with one swoop: Give members of the GOP "aspirin and hand sanitizer" but if they have more complicated health issues, let them die."

www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=111763

John Kerry Gets His Due

Who by the Way Served in Vietnam
"Boston Celebrates Marshmallow Fluff"--headline, United Press International, Sept. 27

Wall Street Journal, Best of the Web, 10/01/09