The President said a rousing "Yes!" when the 3rd quarter growth in GNP of 3.5 % (annual) was reported this week. The real answer is more like "yes." The numbers were driven by the government subsidized "cash-for-clunkers" program and the incentives for first-time home buyers. Both of these programs have ended, however, so unless they are reauthorized, the 4th quarter will likely see a fall off in the growth curve. Having said that, even if you exclude autos from the manufacturing sector, there was still a positive tilt to the numbers at 1.1 % annual growth and housing starts were up 1.5 % (although down again for September as reported late this week).
The U.S. economy is a big and resilient economy which will flourish if given half a chance. Until business is assured, though, that it is not going to get creamed with new healthcare costs, taxes, and the massive disguised tax increase known as "cap-and-trade", you can expect that there will be no robust expansion and therefore the unemployment figures will remain high. The banks are also sitting on their dollars and credit remains tight. Unless we address these issues and let individuals keep more of their earnings by lowering taxes, the outlook is for a continued anemic economy and, if inflation gets started, a repeat of the stagflation of the Nixon and Carter years.
skepticalspeculator.blogspot.com/2009/09/economic-data-point-to-third-quarter.html
No comments:
Post a Comment