Arab Winter

The American press seems to think that every time there is a mob in the street it is always about "progress" and "peace" regardless of what they are actually doing, Occupy Wall Street for example.  In this vein they have reacted ecstatically to the demonstrations in Arab countries in the Middle East as ushering in an "Arab Spring." Michael Youssef, an American born in Egypt who writes very insightful pieces about what is happening in the Islamic world, says guess again. Speaking specifically about Egypt, he reports that:

"The truth about recent events in Egypt reveals that the country has disintegrated into a total anarchy and barbarianism that would make the Vikings blush.

Peaceful Christians are being beheaded in their own homes. Their possessions are being carried off as police either stand helplessly by or, for a portion of the booty, turn a blind eye. And surprise, surprise! Nearly all the victims of beheadings were Christians killed by Muslim fundamentalists."

He lays much of the responsibility at President Obama's feet:

"Indecisive leadership kills innocent people and causes disasters. Take President Jimmy Carter’s vacillating support for the Shah of Iran. In one breath, Carter would support the beleaguered leader, and in the next, he would praise the Iranian Revolution. That indecisiveness led to 52 Americans being taken hostage for 444 days inside the U.S. Embassy in Tehran.

It is precisely the same kind of vacillation and accommodation on the part of Mr. Obama that has emboldened the Islamists around the world. As a result, we have seen jihadist-led bloodbaths from Yemen to Syria and from Libya to Egypt."

I think that this is probably an overstatement. The U.S. can urge moderation and adopt policies to move a country in that direction, but it does not have the ability to dictate events. In Egypt and other Arab countries beset by these mobs, despots have usually done little for their citizens and instead simply focused on keeping the lid on via the secret police. Eventually the pressure builds and the lid comes off - unless an even more brutal government takes its place. By winking at ruthless elements, though, like the Muslim Brotherhood, and recognizing them as legitimate parties, the U.S. can make it easier for such groups to gain power and really clamp down as they take a country back to the 5th century, their view of paradise.

Egypt is getting ugly. I suspect that as the rose-colored glasses come off we will see more and more snow and ice, rather than tulips and daffodils, and we will have to deal with all the consequent foreign policy crises that will go with it. Think President Carter and American hostages in Iran for 444 days. The world situation is getting very interesting.

townhall.com/columnists/michaelyoussef/2011/11/27/arab_winter