Will They or Won't They?

Israel has been playing a high-stakes game of poker with Iran for some time over the latter's aggressive moves to build a nuclear capability. Such a force would be an existential threat to Israel. With the very short missile flight times over the Middle East, it would be very difficult to avoid one or more hits with even the best anti-missile defense system overhead. I am frankly surprised that the Israelis didn't pull the trigger when President Bush was in office - he was definitely more sympathetic than the current regime. That is water over the dam now, though, and Israel is faced with a situation where projecting power is going to be very difficult with a mildly hostile U.S. and a definitely hostile Syria and Iraq. It isn't without reason that Iran has been moving to build influence in those two countries, which would at least have to look the other way for a massive Israeli airstrike on Iran.The Saudis remain a wild card. The question remains: will the Israelis strike?

I think the answer is "no" because they have waited too long. Iran has had ample time to hide and harden its nuclear facilities and I doubt that Israel has sufficient long range striking power to take all of them out. I am not sure that we have enough power to do it either, but we do have the ability to mount a sustained campaign that makes it more likely to achieve a favorable result. Of course, there is no political will to do so. Russia and China are Iran's protectors, as they both just demonstrated in the UN by vetos of increased sanctions in the face of strong U.S. pressure. They could be expected to bluster and threaten and probably airlift in sophisticated weaponry. Oil talks. The rest of the world doesn't like Israel anyhow and would just as soon that it go away.

What to expect? I think that you will see an increasing number of attacks like the stuxnet virus hobbling Iranian computers and Iranian nuclear scientists taken out by hit teams. I would be delighted to be surprised, but I will not be holding my breath. A nuclear Iran will soon be a reality and then we will see if the mullahs have been bluffing about their willingness to use such a weapon. If the answer is "no" then we can expect a full-scale nuclear exchange and realize that this is the price of equivocation in the face of an implacable foe - a lesson we should have learned from WWII. Cowardice never goes out of style.

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