Saturday, May 25, 2013

Pre-Apocalyptic Spain

George Friedman, the CEO of Stratfor (which provides private intelligence briefings for international companies),  provides a fascinating look at the current situation in Spain and what it portends from a historical perspective. It's not good.

From empty roads because gas is too expensive to 22-year old beggars in Madrid who are dressed neatly like students, the situation for Spain's people is bad and getting worse. Unemployment is over 27% but it is shifted toward those under 25 who are staggering under 57% unemployment numbers. From a political standpoint, this is a dangerous mix. Friedman notes of the 22-year old student beggar:

"He is broke, scared and bored -- not something you want a mass of young men to be. That is the point at which history turns. Over time, they become men with nothing to lose; they become violent men, trying to reshape the order by any means necessary. Looking around the violent parts of the world, it is young men with nothing to lose and fantasies of glory, led by older men who understand them and their needs, who wage the civil wars that tear countries apart."

He goes on to note that this was exactly the situation after WW I and the bloody Spanish Civil War soon followed. 

Eurocrats from Germany and Spain that he talked to were quite sanguine that it would all soon work out, but we have heard those assessments before and they have yet to be realized. A volatile mix is brewing and some point, it will not take much of a spark to set it off. How much of Europe is in or close to the same situation is an even more disturbing question.  
finance.townhall.com/columnists/georgefriedman/2013/05/25/geopolitical-journey-an-empty-highway-in-spain-n1606167

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