The Syrian Snakepit

The shouts are growing to do "something" in Syria. Unfortunately, it probably is but the potential for doing "something" turning into an out-of-control conflagration is daunting. First, why we need to do something - the Red Line.

A year ago President Obama issued one of his magic Mt. Olympus-o-grams that if CBW weapons were used by the Assad government in Syria, it would be crossing a "Red Line" which would trigger unspecified but presumably bad consequences. This President has a really bad habit of thinking that when he says something, it's done and he can move on and do the things he really wants to do like finishing off the American economy. Unfortunately, the rest of the world looks for consistency of actions following words and when it does not see it, they ignore the U.S. and do what they want to do. 

In Assad's case, with the active help of Russia and Iran, it meant brutally suppressing those in rebellion against his regime. Ultimately, this involved using nerve gas and killing a bunch of innocents, although there is some evidence (this is the snakepit part) to believe that it was actually al-Qaeda elements among the rebel forces that did it to drag the U.S. into the conflict. What to do? Why wring our diplomatic hands of course! The President intoned that it was a "grave" situation. Presumably no pun was intended. Secretary of State John Kerry pushed back his hair and called it a "moral obscenity." When this verbal Shock and Awe campaign failed to induce any material changes, there was the dawning realization that we might actually have to do something.

The United States is bigger than any particular President and its word needs to mean something. Even though I am convinced that President Obama had not a clue a year ago when he set the "Red Line" that he might actually have to back his words up, we now need to back those words up. The best course of action is to take apart the Syrian Air Force. The reason: it localizes Assad and if the rebels win, it also de-fangs them from causing major trouble, i.e. - Israel. I am confident that this mission is sufficiently specific that our armed forces can carry it out with dispatch. We can set a goal for when it should be done, but it is important to finish the job and not just follow a pre-set timetable. Now for the downside.

Putin and the Russians, as well as the Mad Mullahs in Iran, think Obama is an empty suit. They are probably right. This may lead them, however, to try something that will force a larger war because again, the U.S. is bigger than any particular President. A hypothetical.

We have 4 destroyers in the eastern Med sent there by President Obama. The Russians have a rather larger fleet in the same general area. We hit Syria with air strikes and the Syrians, with Russian technical support (ECW, cutting-edge anti-ship missiles, etc.) sinks one or more of our destroyers. Not only that, but after doing so, Putin gets on TV and warns us against responding - or else! Simultaneously, Iranian terror cells in this country cut loose with a series of terror attacks in support of their Syrian brothers. Service to Obama. 

If the world understands that the U.S. says what it means and means what it says, the likelihood is that the above scenario would not occur. George W. Bush may have been perceived as a cowboy, but there was no doubt in anybody's mind that he would pull the trigger if need be. There is no such certainty in the minds of world leaders today, though, and we are thus entering a very dangerous situation as a result. Pray that things do not spin out of control.