"Unemployment is falling in part because more adults are exiting the workforce, a trend that we write quite a bit about.
The so-called "labor force participation rate" is now 61.2 percent, falling by a full percentage point in just six months. The percentage of adults in the workforce falls to a new post-1976 low most months. The nationwide rate is similarly shallow." (Emphasis added)
Translated, are new jobs really being created? Many more people have now given up looking for a job and are out of the potential labor pool, so even without jobs growing, the relative percentage of unemployed goes down. This is the shell game that the Federal Labor Department has been playing with its unemployment statistics.
The column goes on to say:
"The report says the root causes, and thus ways to reverse the decline, remain hidden: "How much is attributable to the severe nature of the business cycle, from which one could reasonably expect a rebound, and how much is a fundamental shift in Oregon’s economy is unknown at this time."
It could be that temp and sub-30 hour/week jobs (Obamacare) are increasing a little bit for Christmas, but if this tumbles after January 1, the fundamentals of Oregon's employment picture would be more like that described in The Oregonian piece and we will have a "surprise" revenue shortfall at some point next year and the "clear need" for another tax hike to make it up. That doesn't even take into account that the trend on Obamacare/Cover Oregon signups, such as they are, which appear to be heavily weighted toward Medicaid and therefore necessitating a big bump in public subsidies.
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