Saturday, June 25, 2016

The Morning After Hangover

Now the divorce proceedings begin between England and the EU. The stock market tanked yesterday, which it always does when there is uncertainty, but the sky hasn't fallen yet and it won't. Economic analyst Larry Kudlow tells why:
"And there need be no economic catastrophe. The EU needs Britain more than Britain needs the EU. The London Stock Exchange is one of the most powerful financial centers in the world. Frankfurt will never replace it. 
Trade is the key to the economic outlook in Britain and the EU. Many corporate chieftains joined large bank CEOs and the fearmongering IMF to suggest that the EU will deal harshly with Britain if it leaves and stop all trade. That’s mutually assured destruction — MAD. A tariff-driven trade war would destroy both power centers. 
Not only does the EU need Britain’s financial capabilities, Britain itself is major importer of EU goods and services. If sanity prevails, there’s no reason why the EU and Britain can’t hammer out a free-trade agreement in the two years allotted by the Lisbon Treaty."

Yes, it will take time to sort things out but cooler heads will prevail - business after all is business. In fact, European economies are fragile for a number of reasons, so I would expect a very focused effort to reach a successful agreement so as to not further injure them and they need Britain in the mix. Time will tell but I'm leaving my money in the market which I think will improve after some initial bumps and bruises.

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