A Look Back and a Look Ahead

President Trump can be uncouth, unpredictable and unrepentant. He also delivered in 2017 a sterling new Supreme Court justice, tax reform that will help a lot of people and the economy, trashed volumes of awful Federal regulations, eliminated the Obamacare individual mandate, recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital, and a lot more. In fact, these would have been substantial accomplishments in a full 4-year term. It can fairly be said about him, "Don't pay attention to what he says; pay attention to what he does." All of which makes looking ahead to 2018 a very interesting proposition. 

It starts with China and Russia. Look for continued jockeying back and forth between the U.S. and these two countries. China is by far the more powerful. Russia's economy is red-lined trying to underwrite Putin's foreign adventures and military expenditures. His population continues aging at an unchangeable rate sapping the country's economic vitality more and more each year. Meanwhile, China, although suffering from the same predicament and having a huge demographic imbalance between males and females, has loads of cash in the bank to finance a massive military buildup, foreign adventurism, and the ability to eat trade losses to penetrate U.S. markets and pirate U.S. technology in many areas including military. 

All sides have too much to lose, though, to allow things to spin out of control, so look for moves and counter-moves. This is likely because these countries are increasingly believers that Trump can and will pull the trigger if necessary. Assuming that the refurbishment of the U.S. military continues, let the games continue. 

The wild cards are North Korea and Iran. The former is an extremely dangerous country because of its leader and nuclear weapons and missiles. The best result would be a Chinese-sponsored coup that takes out the current leader and installs a more predictable (and non-nuclear but pro-Bejing) regime. The price the U.S. would pay is the tacit understanding that the division between North and South Korea would continue, although we would be free to support our ally in the South. Considering the alternatives, that's not a bad deal.

The Green Revolution in Iran is stirring again and that is a very encouraging sign. In just the last few weeks unrest has become widespread throughout the country because of the poor economy, foreign adventurism (Syria, Lebanon and Yemen) and the heavy-handed suppression of freedom by the mullahs. President Trump is not Obama and he and a host of other government officials have already publicly given support to the demonstrators. It is not crisis stage yet but an indigenous rebellion that overthrows the evil theocrats would be a victory not only for the Iranian people, but an answer to a huge foreign policy problem for the region and the world that has been unresolved for decades. We need to be quietly moving some chess pieces to do what we can to move this one toward a successful conclusion. 

2018 may be the year that we see what President Trump is really made of as he may face tests unseen since Washington, Lincoln and FDR if either Korea or Iran, or both, go "hot." If he is a great chess player, though, two key pieces pieces may topple and a new game board more favorable to the U.S. may emerge.