It has always been fascinating to me in reading history to see how nations have gone about their business and willfully averted their eyes from momentous developments that ultimately plunged the world into desperate conflict, Hitler's rise to power in Germany during the 1930s, for example. In hindsight it is plain to see that conflict was inevitable and that if it had been dealt with earlier, the massive amount of bloodshed in WWII would probably not have been necessary. Santayana said that those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it and I fear that this may well be the case as early as this summer.
The UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) now says that Iran has enough fissile material to build two atomic bombs. It is reasonable to conclude that Israel has reached the same conclusion. It is also reasonable for Israel to conclude that nobody in the West is going to lift a finger to do anything about it, so the only question is whether Israel will. That decision has almost certainly already been made because the military needs time to plan a mission of the magnitude required to have a decent chance of success. Thus, one way or the other, this summer is likely to be a fateful one.
If Israel strikes we can only hope that it is based on good intelligence and is massive enough to take out Iran's nuclear materials, at least for a time. If Israel does not strike, we will see if the West's smug view that "only a madman would use nukes and therefore he won't" holds true. This is a classic case of imparting one's own characteristics to one's enemy. I think Ahmadinejad is not just a poseur but the real deal. I hope that I am wrong. If not, then it may be a hot summer with temperatures of 10 million degrees followed by periods of intermittent fallout.
www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article7142176.ece
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