Passing Storms

2011 has been a tough year for a lot of reasons, both societally and personally. There has been good to be sure, but weighed as a whole, the scales have been more down than up. God never promised, though, that life would be easy, but rather that He would be with us in the good times and the bad. And He has been. So here is to more good times for us all in 2012 - and the sure knowledge that even if that doesn't prove true, He will be right here with us. Happy New Year.

Euro Could Become World's Leading Currency

So says the chief policy maker for the European Central Bank.

news.yahoo.com/euro-could-become-worlds-leading-currency-noyer-191853289.html

Ring Out the Old; Bring in the New; then the Old...

Solomon said that there is nothing new under the sun. He was right. Victor Davis Hanson gives us a look at the New/Old Europe, which really hasn't changed much over the last several hundred years. The rest of Europe is wooing Germany to pay the bills for the profligacy of its more undisciplined members and hoping that Germany doesn't go off the deep end again.

Perhaps the bigger variable this time is that Europe has let millions of Muslims into their countries. Combined with an abysmal birthrate among its natural born citizens, the future of Europe could be very different indeed. Then again, civilizations rising and falling isn't new under the sun either.

townhall.com/columnists/victordavishanson/2011/12/29/the_new_old_europe

A Big Thumbs Up!

USA Today reports that charitable giving over Christmas was up 4% over last year. Nice job in tough times America! There is still time before 12/31 if you weren't a part of it.

www.usatoday.com/news/nation/story/2011-12-28/charity-holiday-giving/52253398/1

U.S. Leads Industrial World - In Mule Technology

I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas. Enough of sugar plums dancing in your heads and let's instead think about industrial policy.

A modern industrial economy needs lots of different minerals and metals to thrive. The more a country depends on other countries to provide these materials, the more it places itself at risk if relations go sour. The U.S. imports a lot of its minerals but we are fortunate to be rich in many, tungsten for example. But that asumes that it can be mined, which as it turns out is a big assumption.

Columnist Marita Noon writes about recent efforts to mine tungsten in Montana. It gives a good idea why the American economy stinks:

"In Montana’s Finley Basin there are known tungsten deposits. An Australian company wanted to bring revenue and jobs to the state by developing the resource. While the property was successfully drilled and recognized by Union Carbide in the seventies, it is now about 200 yards inside a roadless study area. The Forest Service was willing to offer a conditional drilling permit. Among the conditions were these requirements:

•          The drill sites must be cleared using hand tools,
•          The drilling equipment and fuel must be transported to the site by a team of pack mules,
•          The mules must be fed certified weed-free hay, and
•          Drill site and trail reclamation must be done using hand tools.

The company gave up.

How can America remain competitive in a global marketplace when we are required to use pick axes and mules? How does this help America’s heavy equipment manufacturers like Caterpillar?

No wonder we are in trouble."

You think? Hand tools? Mules? Certified weed-free hay? Amazing. November 6, 2012 is coming.

finance.townhall.com/columnists/maritanoon/2011/12/24/obamaland_american_mules_must_eat_certified_weed-free_hay

Merry Christmas!

See Ya Pardner

We are now done in Iraq - the upcoming Presidential election made sure of that. We lost 4,000+ dead and 32,000 wounded. Iraq is free, at least for the moment. Peggy Noonan comments on an interesting interview that she did this year in Iraq:

"In Iraq this year I asked an Iraqi military officer doing joint training at an American base what was the big thing he'd come to believe about Americans in the years they'd been there. He thought. 

"You are a better people than your movies say." 

He had judged us by our exports. He had seen the low slag heap of our culture and assumed it was a true expression of who we are. And so he'd assumed we were disgusting."

online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204552304577115051424219634.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

I'd like to think we are better than our movies. Certainly the men and women who served our country so well in Iraq are first class. Thank you - a lot - for your service. You acquitted yourselves well and history will judge you charitably, in the finest tradition of the American soldier. 

Light of the World

The Shroud of Turin is back in the news. The arguments over whether this really is the burial shroud of Christ have gone back and forth for a long time. A new research team has now concluded that the images are genuine and could only have been created by an extremely short burst of very intense light. The team was able to replicate the images using a very brief burst of UV light, the technology for which was not available  at the time the images were created. The scientists cautioned that they cannot, of course, say that this is Christ's burial shroud.  Jesus is the light of the world, though, so we can say that these new findings are perfectly consistent. Interesting validation of the Christmas story.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/religion/8966422/Italian-study-claims-Turin-Shroud-is-Christs-authentic-burial-robe.html

It Can't Come Too Soon!

Medical research shows promise that a super-memory pill could soon be on the way. Most excellent! Researchers found that suppressing a brain molecule (PKR) that has a virus early warning function led to increased memory and learning capability. It can't happen too soon for me, as I sit here trying to remember what my wife wants for Christmas.
www.vancouversun.com/health/Discovery+could+lead+memory+enhancing+pill+realm+science+fiction/5873583/story.html

The Christmas Spirit

Traveling over Christmas can often be an ordeal. We've done it and one of my not fond memories is the Mt. Hood-sized pile of luggage at United's baggage claim area at O"Hare when my tribe arrived on Christmas Eve from Portland. But my purpose today is not to beat up on the airlines, but rather to spread a little Christmas cheer by sending them some love. Yes, Virginia, there are good employees who work at airlines!

My personal story was on a United flight from Denver to Portland. I was transporting a 1-year old from Texas to Oregon who was being adopted. By the time we made it to Denver, he had worn me out. We had the last flight of the day and I crawled down the jetway with baby in tow and me in sad shape. Fortunately, the combination of a kind flight attendant and a light load soon found me napping while the flight attendant (a mom herself) delightedly played with the baby at the back of the plane. When I got back to the office, a letter was soon on its way from my office to United HQ about their terrific employee.

Enjoy these stories and, if you are traveling this Christmas, especially by air or rail, spread a little Christmas cheer by a kind word and a good attitude for the folks who are trying to get you home safely.

www.thestreet.com/story/11350575/1/top-5-airline-service-moments-of-2012.html

Point/Counterpoint

There is no question that Iran has one of our super secret stealth recon drones. news.cnet.com/8301-1009_3-57344032-83/u.s-drone-hijacked-by-gps-hack/?tag=mncol;cnetRiver In fact, this one was so secret that no picture of it had been published until the Iranians showed it to the world. The bigger question is how did this CIA-operated aircraft end up in the hands of the bad guys and how do we prevent his from happening again?

A lot of stories are floating around as to just what went wrong. One is simply operator error. That may be, but there should be an absolutely fail safe destruction circuit built into these things that will blow it up if there is no other recourse. Of course, it may have been as simple as some lieutenant who was flying this thing not wanting to hit the kill switch on one of America's most secret - and expensive - pieces of hardware because his orders were not clear as to when he was authorized to do this. That is a command-and-control problem.

A larger command-and-control problem is why orders were not immediately given to either go in and recover the drone by force, or destroy it on the ground with an air strike. Rumor has it that the President spiked this option. The President did say that we have asked for it back and "we'll see" what the Iranian response is.  Right. Five guesses what their response will be. This is a command-and-control problem that can only be solved next November.

The more technical explanation is that the Iranians spoofed the GPS feed and tricked it into landing in Iran. The article below from Wired says that this is possible, but it would be difficult. www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/12/iran-drone-hack-gps/

My best guess is that this was probably a Chinese or Russian operation that was a field test of new equipment to counter our drones. They got lucky by snatching one of our newest models instead of a Predator or other older drone. Since they now have our best and brightest, they can manufacture their own after reverse-engineering it and work out new countermeasures to bring ours down. Great. Point/counterpoint is the nature of the game and we just got painfully counterpointed in a big way.  Wherever the screw-ups occurred here, there is no excuse for not taking the drone out when we knew it was down in Indian Country.

Good Newt/Bad Newt

For those of you still considering Newt for President, I hope that you will read the attached article from today's WSJ. He has only reluctantly fessed up that he pulled down $1.6 million from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and he defended these colossal failures in the same way as Barney Frank, which he "does not recall at this time."Newt is not particularly conservative and if he is the Republican nominee it is going to be the the old exploding cigar routine and Barack Obama will be re-elected. We can't afford that.

online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203699404577046312408153358.html

Parting the Veil

Christopher Hitchens died yesterday at 62 after a battle with throat cancer. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16212418   Hitchens was a gifted writer and a fiery polemicist with a real animus toward Christianity. I wonder what he thinks now.

Steve Jobs is an even higher profile figure who recently died. His last words were reputed to be, "Oh wow.  Oh wow. Oh wow!" It does make you wonder.

Death has been on my mind of late because of the death of our cat, who died in my wife's arms last Sunday, and because of the imminent deaths of three friends. St. Paul says that now we see through the glass darkly and I believe this is true, if we see at all.

Non-believers either ignore death or deal with it by false bravado - "Do not go gentle into that good night!" in the words of Welsh poet Dylan Thomas. You may not go gently, Mr. Thomas, but most assuredly you will (and did) go.

Christians too often try to ignore death too or paper over it with a glib religious gloss. It is easy to say that God will see us through when it is someone else who is dying. It becomes much more difficult when we are the one who is looking down the long end of the barrel and our own earthly existence is drawing to a close. We all fear what we do not know and we do not know what lies on the other side in the same sense that we know our wife sitting next to us, the smile of our children, or the warmth of the morning sun. But do we, in fact, have some real knowledge even now that we do not realize that is enough to bring us through? The answer, I believe, is "yes."

It starts by acknowledging that Paul says that we see though the glass darkly, not that we don't see at all. That would be the experience of my life. Occasionally we are given "God sightings." Chuck Colson calls them "signposts to God." www.breakpoint.org/bpcommentaries/entry/13/18420 For most of us they are few and far between. It could be because we are blind and deaf and simply missing them all the time, but more likely it is because He doesn't want to overwhelm us with His presence and so withholds it from us. Being constantly in His immediate presence can breed a blase' attitude - think the Jews and Moses trekking around Mt. Sinai for 40 years. It can also cause fear, but not inspire love, and it is love freely given that God desires from us.

Thinking back over my life, I can count a few occasions where I can say unequivocally that God was with me. They were unmistakeable and have stayed with me ever since. I may see through a glass darkly but for a few moments at least, I did see face-to-face. If He can do that, then I know He can walk with me through the Valley of the Shadow of Death.

So dear friends, know that we on this side, and your family and friends on the other side, are praying for you as you approach the veil. We pray that you know beyond any doubt that He has you in the palm of His hand. I know that some day you will return the favor. Remember the God sightings that you have known in this life - He is the same God who will bring you through. Aloha means "Until we meet again," so Aloha and not goodbye.

The Fourth Reich?

Yup, at least Victor Davis Hanson thinks so and they got there without resorting to military. Basically, for a long time Germany has played the ant while the rest of Europe did the grasshopper routine. Now that winter has arrived, Germany is sitting fat and happy while the rest of the continent (with a few exceptions like Norway) is out starving in the cold. Europe worries whether Germany will press its advantage into a Pax Germana. Doh! You only have to ignore several hundred years of history to believe they won't. Ve-dy in-te-westing.

townhall.com/columnists/victordavishanson/2011/12/15/the_hundred_years_german_war

Egyptian Stew

While major U.S. media focus on important stories like Lindsay Lohan, Der Spiegel is actually sending reporters out to interview players in the Egyptian political scene. Where Egypt goes, the rest of the Arab crescent is likely to go and this article, not to mention the recent election, is not particularly encouraging. It appears that between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists there will be a warm embrace of the 5th century in Egypt's future. Any chance we could consider energy independence for the U.S. so we don't have to deal with these folks?

www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,803500,00.html

Hope

I am melancholy. I don't like the darkness of winter and people I care about are dying. They have run the good race, fought the good fight and heaven awaits, but they will be missed here. The sadness seeps from my soul.


Yet the darkness of the hour makes the Light who came into the world that we celebrate this Christmas season that much brighter:


I am the light of the world. Whoever follows me will never walk in darkness, but will have the light of life.  John 8:12


 He who is Light came into this dark place and brought hope. And someday -


He will wipe every tear from their eyes. There will be no more death or mourning or crying or pain, for the old order of things has passed away. Revelation 21:4


The substance of things hoped for. May He come soon. Amen.

Newt with Kraut

Newt Gingrich is rapidly closing on Romney as the GOP front-runner, but their are some serious people who aren't Newt fans. Take Charles Krauthammer for example:

"Gingrich has his own vulnerabilities. The first is often overlooked because it is characterological rather than ideological: his own unreliability. Gingrich has a self-regard so immense that it rivals Obama's — but, unlike Obama's, is untamed by self-discipline.

Take that ad Gingrich did with Nancy Pelosi on global warming advocating urgent government action. He laughs it off today with "that is probably the dumbest single thing I've done in recent years. It is inexplicable."

This will not do. He was obviously thinking something. What was it? Thinking of himself as a grand world-historical figure, attuned to the latest intellectual trend (preferably one with a tinge of futurism and science, like global warming), demonstrating his own incomparable depth and farsightedness." 

www.postbulletin.com/news/stories/display.php?id=1477525

Then their is someone not nearly as serious, but usually funny - Ann Coulter. In this piece, though, she is dead serious about serving up deep-fried Newt:

"Before you newly active Republicans commit to Newt Gingrich as your presidential nominee on the basis of the recent debates, here's a bit of Newt history you ought to know. I promise you, it's going to come up if he's the candidate. 

The day after the Republicans' historic takeover of the House of Representatives in the 1994 election, Newt was off and running, giving a series of Fidel Castro-style speeches about "the Third Wave information revolution." It had the unmistakable ring of lingo from his new-age gurus, Alvin and Heidi Toffler. 

(Newt, who was married at the time, also began dating again.) 

A few weeks later, when Newt was elected House speaker by the incoming Republican conference, there was a small elderly couple standing by his side as he gave a one-hour acceptance speech. It soon became clear who they were, when he issued a reading list to the Republican legislators. At the top of the list was a book by the Tofflers. 

Hadn't Republicans just won on a platform of smaller government? Instead of a Republican victory, the '94 election seemed to be a victory for the Tofflers' cyber-babble about "social wavefront analysis," "anticipatory democracy," "de-massification," "materialismo," "the Third Wave" and "decision loads." 

Then, in his first week as speaker, Gingrich was again promoting the Tofflers around town, introducing them at a technology conference and giving a speech titled "From Virtuality to Reality." 

How about a speech on Republican plans to reform entitlement programs? "
www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2817392/posts

It would appear that Newt is a little, well flaky. Maybe he's changed. He says the third time is the charm for getting married, he says he has a new Christian faith, and he's a grandfather now for crying out loud - it's the NEW IMPROVED NEWT. Maybe. We'll see. As you listen and read, however, to the Republican candidates, check them all out carefully. Obama's Chicago Gang plays for keeps and we can't afford to kick the 2012 election with someone who self-destructs for all the world to see.

Never Forget

The waters of Pearl Harbor are quiet, as are the souls beneath it. There is peace between the United States and Japan and it has lasted for 66 years. The excellent article below by Jeffrey Anderson gives the key reason: the United States was resolute in battle; magnanimous in victory. The same formula worked with Germany.

The world today is no less dangerous, but the United States seems to be forgetting the part about being resolute. We have enemies and they are dangerous, in fact more so than in WW II. If they act against our country, then they must be resolutely and unconditionally defeated. Only then can we afford to be magnanimous. Never forget. Never forget.

www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/70th-anniversary-japanese-attack-pearl-harbor_611662.html

Why Does It Have to be Zombies?

I must confess that I didn't get vampires and now I am having the same problem with zombies. Everything is about zombies these days - movies, tv shows, even ads. Why? What is it about the walking dead that apparently so intrigues a sizable portion of our population? 


Certainly a lot of people just like a good scare and since zombies are the monster du jour, then zombies it is. 


I wonder, though, if a certain number of people are sensing their own inner condition from these movies and are at once fascinated and repulsed by what they see. Without Christ, we are indeed the walking dead. Physically we are are alive, but inside we are deader than a doornail and go through live "eating" other people without much thought to what this is doing to others - it's all about us.


C.S. Lewis provides some support for this view when he said that he was sure that in this life we meet no "ordinary" people. He stated  that:


"It is a serious thing to live in a society of possible gods and goddesses, to remember that the dullest and most uninteresting person you talk to may one day be a creature which, if you saw it now, you would be strongly tempted to worship, or else a horror and a corruption such as you now meet, if at all, only in a nightmare."  The Weight of Glory


Are people transfixed by zombies because they are somehow recognizing their inner nightmare - that they really are what they are seeing on the screen? Perhaps I am reading too much into the zombie craze and it is all just in fun. Perhaps, but I don't get the joke. 

No More Mr. Nice Guy!

Are dogs really man's best friend? Perhaps, but I am definitely going to be keeping a better eye on our dog, Sadie (bin Laden). Why?

A Utah duck hunter put his shotgun down in the boat while he got out to move some decoys and Fido, his faithful and loyal companion, stepped on it causing it to go off and deposit a big load of buckshot in his owner's backside. Humans, you are warned - dog biscuits or your life!

 www.kgw.com/news/national/134789438.html

God at Work

I've been back from the Peacemaker mission in Ecuador for almost a month and have had the time to process to some degree the things that we saw and experienced. The biggest take-away is how big the Church is and how God is working all over the world.

We met some quality people who have hearts for God and put their faith into action. Pastor Domingo, a former FARC guerrilla, who came to faith in Christ and who has a true pastor's heart. Robin, who heads a Christian school and who is doing a good job training up a new generation of believers. Caesar, who owns and personally runs one of the few Christian radio stations on the Amazon side of Ecuador and who does not hesitate to pay out of his own pocket to get people counseling or other needed services. Pedro and Patricia who keep the school clean and cook for the children. These are just a few of the fine people we met and who touched our lives.

There is a lot of bad news out there, but quietly and under the radar, God's people are doing His work and making the world a better place. It was a privilege to work with them. If you have the chance to take a short term mission trip, grab it. You will be amazed at how you are changed.

Brits See End of Euro

The British Foreign Office is making plans to help ex-pat Brits if the Euro goes down, which is now viewed as a certainty. The British Treasury Ministry confirmed the plans and made an interesting comment:

"The Treasury confirmed earlier this month that contingency planning for a collapse is now under way. 

A senior minister has now revealed the extent of the Government’s concern, saying that Britain is now planning on the basis that a euro collapse is now just a matter of time. 

' It’s in our interests that they keep playing for time because that gives us more time to prepare,' the minister told the Daily Telegraph." (emphasis added).

The fall of the Euro will have a major effect on this country as well, particularly if our big banks have heavily invested in Eurozone bonds. More importantly, it can happen here too and the probability goes up every day that the Feds do nothing to halt our runaway spending.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8917077/Prepare-for-riots-in-euro-collapse-Foreign-Office-warns.html

Up in Smoke

Yes, it's the name of a bad Cheech and Chong movie (for the record, they were all bad) but it's also apparently what is happening to Chevy Volts. I am sure that the next thing that the Feds will roll out besides the tax credits for this turkey will be a Federal fire insurance policy. It would seem that whatever you may save on your carbon footprint by driving this thing, you more than lose from the car fire. Go Green!

townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2011/11/28/chevy_volt_batteries_catching_on_fire

Up, Up and Away!

Mark Steyn made an interesting catch that I had not seen in the run up to Thanksgiving. Germany was selling government bonds on Wednesday and didn't get any buyers at the interest rate offered. What does that have to do with us? Consider:

"The advantage the United States enjoys is that, unlike Greece, it can print the currency in which its debt is denominated. But, even so, it still needs someone to buy it. The failure of Germany’s bond auction on Wednesday suggests that the world is running out of buyers for Western sovereign debt at historically low interest rates."

 www.nationalreview.com/articles/284111/more-more-more-mark-steyn

Ergo - interest rates will go up. For everything. And where they will stop, no one knows. People and institutions with serious money don't have to buy bonds. They can buy gold, silver, oil, countries - almost anything. If they perceive government bonds as a poor investment they may not buy them at any price and then the EU's and the U.S. government's Disneyland economics will come to a rapid and painful end. Unfortunately, we get to go along for the ride.

Arab Winter

The American press seems to think that every time there is a mob in the street it is always about "progress" and "peace" regardless of what they are actually doing, Occupy Wall Street for example.  In this vein they have reacted ecstatically to the demonstrations in Arab countries in the Middle East as ushering in an "Arab Spring." Michael Youssef, an American born in Egypt who writes very insightful pieces about what is happening in the Islamic world, says guess again. Speaking specifically about Egypt, he reports that:

"The truth about recent events in Egypt reveals that the country has disintegrated into a total anarchy and barbarianism that would make the Vikings blush.

Peaceful Christians are being beheaded in their own homes. Their possessions are being carried off as police either stand helplessly by or, for a portion of the booty, turn a blind eye. And surprise, surprise! Nearly all the victims of beheadings were Christians killed by Muslim fundamentalists."

He lays much of the responsibility at President Obama's feet:

"Indecisive leadership kills innocent people and causes disasters. Take President Jimmy Carter’s vacillating support for the Shah of Iran. In one breath, Carter would support the beleaguered leader, and in the next, he would praise the Iranian Revolution. That indecisiveness led to 52 Americans being taken hostage for 444 days inside the U.S. Embassy in Tehran.

It is precisely the same kind of vacillation and accommodation on the part of Mr. Obama that has emboldened the Islamists around the world. As a result, we have seen jihadist-led bloodbaths from Yemen to Syria and from Libya to Egypt."

I think that this is probably an overstatement. The U.S. can urge moderation and adopt policies to move a country in that direction, but it does not have the ability to dictate events. In Egypt and other Arab countries beset by these mobs, despots have usually done little for their citizens and instead simply focused on keeping the lid on via the secret police. Eventually the pressure builds and the lid comes off - unless an even more brutal government takes its place. By winking at ruthless elements, though, like the Muslim Brotherhood, and recognizing them as legitimate parties, the U.S. can make it easier for such groups to gain power and really clamp down as they take a country back to the 5th century, their view of paradise.

Egypt is getting ugly. I suspect that as the rose-colored glasses come off we will see more and more snow and ice, rather than tulips and daffodils, and we will have to deal with all the consequent foreign policy crises that will go with it. Think President Carter and American hostages in Iran for 444 days. The world situation is getting very interesting.

townhall.com/columnists/michaelyoussef/2011/11/27/arab_winter

Happy Thanksgiving!

King John the First

Funny, I didn't realize that Gov. Kitzhaber was the head of the Executive, Judicial and Legislative branches in Oregon; 3-in-1! That's right, acting in his capacity as King of Oregon, Kitzhaber decreed that there will be no more executions of convicted killers on his watch. Never mind that the defendant who precipitated this decree had been adjudged guilty of murder, his conviction and sentence upheld by the appellate courts, and all pursuant to laws duly passed by the Oregon Legislature. Constitution, Smonchtitution - it's such a bother when you have to do what is Right!

I get it - the Donks don't like the death penalty. Just like they don't like Measure 11 (mandatory minimum sentences), most drug laws, and Republicans. Their remedy, of course, is a Constitutional amendment, but that requires a vote of the people which they know would not pass, so roll out the executive fiat! That's right - no messy elections, no separation of powers, etc., etc. because after all, they are the Ruling Class and know what's best for everybody and everything. Basically, it's Obama Lite and involves ruling subjects by decree, not governing on behalf of citizens pursuant to a Constitutional framework, and it is rapidly becoming the Democrats' modus operandi - a very troubling m.o. to people who care about democracy and limited government.

The Statesman Journal in today's editorial also raises the moral issue of Kitzhaber's inconsistent pro-life ethic: Why spare convicted killers when we allow the killing of innocent babies via abortion and authorize assisted suicide? Good question. Kitzhaber couldn't articulate an answer when asked. I would be happy to trade the abolition of capital punishment in return for doing the same with abortion and assisted suicide. Somehow I doubt, though, that trade is on the table. So much for consistency.

Oregon has been becoming a one-party state for some time and power without accountability breeds arrogance and anti-democratic policies. That's what we see here in Kitzhaber's unilateral decree. I grew up outside Chicago and it is what we saw there in the 1960s and still see today with Rahm Emmanuel and his crew. It isn't healthy and it breeds corruption as well. I don't know what happened to Oregon's vaunted independence, but it seems like the electorate is content to be ruled and not governed. Sad.

www.statesmanjournal.com/article/20111123/OPINION/111230418/Halting-Oregon-execution-bold-political-move

Everything is Not Okay

John Mauldin is a financial analyst whose new book Endgame is high on the Amazon bestseller list. He thinks that the developed world is at the end of a debt "super-cycle" and the house of cards is about to fall. Europe will probably be the catalyst of this collapse and here is why:

"If the ECB [European Central Bank] does not backstop the banks and Italian and Spanish debt, the Eurozone will fall into a deflationary debt spiral. The large majority of European banks (even in core countries) are basically insolvent. They simply hold too much sovereign debt of all types, at leverages approaching 40 to 1. They have this debt on their books at face value. Even a write-down of 10% wipes out most of their capital. It would be an unmitigated disaster. Look at Dexia. Only a few weeks before it was nationalized by the French and Belgians, the regulators were telling us the bank was well-financed. And then Bang! In a matter of a few weeks, it had to be taken over by the governments.

Note please that these are the same regulators that said European banks only needed about €3 billion this summer, and recently that has been raised to €100 billion. They have no clue what mark to market means, but the market does. Bank financing dries up quickly and there is a default moment. Maybe the only real purpose of European bank regulators is to make US regulators look conservative and prudent." (emphasis added)

Having seen how U.S. bank regulators missed virtually every major warning sign prior to the crash of 2008 gives you some idea of how bad the situation is in Europe. Essentially Mauldin is saying that the engines of the jet are cutting in and out for lack of fuel but they haven't quit altogether quite yet. When they do, the free fall begins.

Wars, incidentally, have often arisen historically from events like these. Let's say, for example, that Germany demands a European super government where it calls the shots since it's paying the bills. Fourth Reich anyone? Of course we're too civilized for that sort of thing anymore.

There is growing concern that the big banks here may also have been drinking at the same trough as the European banks by buying up government bonds from the likes of Greece and Italy. (I mean they have great yields and surely the Eurozone will back them. Won't they?) If so, the contagion will spread to this country. Then the pressure will again be on the U.S. government to again bail them (and maybe Europe too) out from this dire dilemma of their own making. But wait - the U.S. is broke too and getting "broker" every minute. Yup, let's be more like them Europeans - the ride down is such a rush!

The Real 99% Americans

I appreciated the piece in today's Statesman Journal by executive editor Bill Church about the so-called 99 percenters. His point is that the real 99 percenters in Salem go to work every day, take care of their families, and give back to this community with their time and money. If something needs fixing, they don't whine about it, they roll up their sleeves and go about finding a solution. Life isn't perfect and never will be, but whining and throwing tantrums about being "oppressed" won't make America great again.

www.statesmanjournal.com/article/20111120/OPINION/111200363/Real-99-percenters-don-t-pitch-tents

It Was Only a Matter of Time

A public water system in Illinois was shut down by a foreign hacker in the first known (or admitted) incident of foreign cyber-sabotage. This will be a major front in the next war and perhaps a decisive one.

Imagine the Chinese moving on Taiwan and the U.S. dispatching a carrier task force in response. China sinks our carrier with its supersonic cruise missiles and the U.S. goes to war-footing. While we dither about a response, China locks up the U.S. power grid and a majority of the water system and threatens worse. Checkmate? At the very least, it brings a far-away conflict literally into the homeland.

I hope that somebody is working on countermeasures, but this incident doesn't do much to raise my confidence level.

www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.bb560ae65a071dc80a1c88fdc371ec35.d51&show_article=1

We Don't Need No Stinkin' Oil or Jobs!

It's about jobs! We've got to get this economy rolling right now! Right now! Thus saith El Presidente in taunting Republicans to spend more Federal money. Unfortunately, when given the chance to actually walk the walk,  the Big O took a pass. I'm referring to the Keystone XL pipeline project from Canada down to the Gulf Coast.

The pipeline is designed to supply the U.S. with substantial quantities of oil and gas from a reliable ally, making us less dependent on the likes of Hugo Chavez and the sheiks in the Middle East.  It would also employ upwards of 20,000 skilled American workers to build it. Sounds like a winner to me, but as John Belushi would say - BUT NOOOO! The President "delayed" the project until after the 2012 election, which is to say that if he wins, it's a dead letter. Canada is taking the cue and moving to peddle its oil to Asia. Allegedly the President acted because of "environmental concerns." There are already many oil pipelines in the U.S., though, and they seem to be doing just fine. While this argument might be convincing to some 20-year old tree hugger, I doubt that Mr. Obama believes this canard.

At some point, by applying Occam's Razor (the simplest explanation is the most likely) one  can only reasonably conclude that Obama and the Democrats want the economy screwed up. The more people become wards of the government, the more often they will vote Democratic to preserve those benefits. What better way to achieve this goal than a crummy economy? Let's not let Boeing open a new plant in South Carolina. Let's not grant permits to drill for oil in the Gulf of Mexico even though Mexico, China, and Cuba are doing so. Let's do nothing about cutting runaway government spending. In short, let's let the economy rot and get as many voters beholden to us as possible and then blame everything, however improbably, on the Republicans. No chance, you say? Did you know that 51% of the population paid no Federal income tax in 2009, the last year for which data is available? Still confident that the public will see through this farce?

 townhall.com/columnists/michaelbarone/2011/11/17/obama_has_a_knack_for_ticking_off_americas_friends

I Can't Believe It!!

"SEIU Announces Its Endorsement of Obama in 2012"--headline, ABCNews.com, Nov. 16

President Newt?

Newt Gingrich is now getting lots of air time as the new and improved Republican presidential candidate. How should Republicans react? In a word, "No."

Gingrich is a popcorn popper of ideas, which is all well and good, but not necessarily a good quality in a President. Newt sometimes comes across like a fire hose, spraying ideas all over the place. He has a legislative temperament. Remember the Contract with America? Remember him sitting on the couch with Nancy Pelosi and pitching a solution to global warming in an ad sponsored by Al Gore's outfit? President Reagan, in contrast, had firm convictions that guided him in choosing ideas that were in the best interest of the United States, but he was anything but random in his approach to governing.

I am afraid too that Mr. Gingrich will be found to have been out tom-catting with the lobbyists and living the Good Life on their tab, even more than has been disclosed already. That is not something that would be helpful to surface during the general election campaign if he were the Republican nominee. So I hope that Newt enjoys his time in the media sun, but I don't think that he's the one.

Why Bother?

We got a letter the other day from Rob Cornilles looking for money for his race for Congress as a Republican in the 1st District.  This is the seat that was held by David Wu until he began dressing up in kitty costumes and saying some rather strange things. Cornilles seems like a nice enough guy. He has experience in the private sector, he wants to cut spending in D.C. But really, why bother?

Republican Chris Dudley ran about as middle-of-the-road campaign as possible and got beat by a former governor who said that Oregon was ungovernable when he last left office. Republican Scott Bruun ran a good race against a Demo who had served only one term and who voted with Nancy Pelosi 97% of the time. While the rest of the country went overwhelmingly Republican in the 2010 election, Oregon's 2nd District (Salem and Clackamas County) went with the Donk.

Being pragmatic, it doesn't appear to me that a Republican can win statewide or a Congressional seat here in the Willamette Valley. Is it the water out here, too little sun? I don't know, but if you are thinking about political contributions, pick an out-of-state race where a Republican has a chance and make a difference by putting your cash into that race. Sad commentary, but true.

Angel Flight

When I was in Ecuador a couple of weeks ago and flying from Quito to the Amazon Basin, we taxied past the Mission Aviation Fellowship (MAF) hangar at the Quito airport. MAF is a great organization that operates all over the world flying people and supplies to/from remote missions. It exists to support other Christian missions and many a missionary literally owes their life to a medevac flight by MAF to get them to a major city hospital and medical help.

The picture shows the new Quest Kodiak that was developed with MAF input. Simply put, it is the best light aircraft flying in the world today. It is built like a truck and can haul 3,500 lbs. of cargo. It's 750 hp Pratt & Whitney turboprop engine is designed to be extremely reliable and get heavy loads in and out of small fields. If I were a young pilot today, this is the plane that I would want to fly and the organization that I would want to fly it for.

I have included a link to MAF's website. The end of the year is coming up and if you are going to be making some year end charitable gifts, you might consider MAF. Good folks; great work!

www.maf.org/page.aspx?pid=369

True Colors

In days of yore, pirate ships would often fly the flags of various nations to lure in their prey and then run up the Jolly Roger at the last minute before boarding their prize. Wait long enough and the true colors of any entity or group will show and Occupy Wall Street (Occupy Anything) has now run up the Jolly Roger.

 Reports are coming in from all over the country about criminal behavior by the OWS folks. Best of the Web had a compendium yesterday (link below) with a list from multiple cities of criminal acts of all kinds.Consider:

San Diego.  Food vendors attacked when they were no longer able to give free food to OWS protesters.

New York.  A bakery has its restroom trashed by OWS types using it for a shower to the tune of $3,000 and is told 10 times to "watch their back" when they protest. A photographer has his nose smacked while taking pictures of the OWS crowd and is told by EMTs that this is the 14th run they have personally made for assault victims of the crowd.

online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204554204577026282449099506.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_MIDDLETopOpinion

You undoubtedly heard about the goings-on in Oakland and even right here in Portland. Mayor Sam Adams has admonished the PDX branch of OWS to behave themselves. Sounds like just a minor case of bad manners, right? Wrong. How about a Molotov cocktail exploding at the World Trade Center, roughing up a KGW camera crew, smashing a police car window, etc.?

www.kgw.com/news/Police-Downtown-Molotov-cocktail-linked-to-Occupy-133527228.html

www.kgw.com/home/Video-shows-KGW-crew-harassed-at-Occupy-Portland-133496118.html

The early mantra of the OWS crowd was that they are the "99% of the rest of the U.S!" My patoot! They flew the American flag to lure a sympathetic audience but now the Jolly Roger is flying proudly from their mast. It's time to respond appropriately and take back our cities from this scurvy mob.

Don Poulson, RIP

I hope that you don't find these posts to friends who have passed to be tedious. I have always liked the "cloud of witnesses" verse from Hebrews when I think about quality people that I have known and who have died:

Therefore, since we are surrounded by such a huge crowd of witnesses to the life of faith, let us strip off every weight that slows us down, especially the sin that so easily trips us up. And let us run with endurance the race God has set before us. Hebrews 12:1

Like many other friends, Don Poulson was a quiet Christian who went about his business being salt and light on this earth without much fanfare. I had the opportunity to sit on the church board with Don and to deal with him professionally (he was an orthopedic surgeon) as an expert witness for one of my clients. He was a gentleman at all times. I hate to think of a world where all the folks like Don are suddenly removed.

Don ran the good race and now has a place in heaven cheering on those of us still here as we run our own races. Thanks Don for enriching my life and making this world a better place while you were here.

www.legacy.com/obituaries/statesmanjournal/obituary.aspx?n=don-poulson&pid=154459891

Moral Fog

Good morning, good morning. I am getting back in the saddle after 12 days in Ecuador - an interesting place and definitely worth a visit. Let's get busy, though.

Mona Charen has an interesting article about moral thought - or rather the lack thereof - in young Americans. Her high school sophomore son was reading a text book that basically trashed the white European colonists of the Americas and idealized the native populations, conveniently leaving out facts like the Aztecs ritually sacrificed 20,000 victims per year by cutting out their still-beating hearts, as shown in the movie Apocalypto with all the gory details. He knew he was reading a lot of bunk, but many young people in America today do not.

Charen says that:

"In 'Lost in Transition: The Dark Side of Emerging Adulthood,' Christian Smith and his co-authors recount the results of their decade-long study of a representative sample of Americans aged 18-23. Through in-depth interviews, they examined their subjects' lives and concluded that an alarming percentage of young people are highly materialistic, commitment averse, disengaged from political and civic life, sexually irresponsible, often heavily intoxicated and morally confused. In fact, the authors contend, they lack even the vocabulary to think in moral terms."

Great. I am fortunate to know people in this age group that are possessed of great character and think and speak about moral issues clearly. If a majority of tomorrow's leaders, however, do not even have the vocabulary to think about moral issues, then America is going to be an interesting place to live. In an immoral or amoral culture, the advantage is always to the strong. So much for civility, protection of the weak, or any other mark of a truly civilized society. Rome - as in Nero's time - here we come!

townhall.com/columnists/monacharen/2011/11/04/moral_abdication

Dude - We See Things Differently Here!

Federal pot raids rankle Oregon lawmakers


Livelihood threatened!

www.kgw.com/news/Federal-pot-raids-rankle-Oregon-lawmakers-131921933.html

Failure and Redemption

Robert Duvall is one of America's premier actors. He has consistently turned in award-winning performances and now is producing his own movies. Duvall is a Christian. He is not in your face about his faith, but his understanding of the core of Christianity is on display in a number of small films that he has produced like The Apostle and Get Low. His newest is Seven Days in Utopia, which got a nice write up today by Chuck Colson.  www.breakpoint.org/bpcommentaries/entry/13/17998

The basic story line is about a young golf pro who chokes in a major tournament, blows up making a fool of himself, and has his perfectionist dad walk out on him. As he is driving away with his career in tatters, he drives through Utopia, Texas and meets Duvall, an old golf pro himself, who proceeds to straighten out his game and not incidentally, his life.

The film has been out since August and probably will be on Netflix soon, so you might give it a try. You should sample some of his other pictures too. Duvall is making pictures that matter, which is a refreshing change from the usual drek from Hollywood. If people turn out to see them, he can keep making them and if not - another serving of drek, please.

www.sevendaysinutopia.com/video

Are We Next?

You probably remember the rioting in England last summer when lots of stores were looted and a number of buildings burned to the ground. At that time, my son-in-law sent me a think piece from the London Daily Mail and then asked: are we next? The answer now appears to be "yes" and for the same reasons.

I posted yesterday that the only prevailing ethos of these "protesters" is "Gimme!" The same was true of the English mob, only they went out and simply took for themselves. The article closes with two paragraphs that apply equally well to the American mob in New York and other cities:

"They are an absolute deadweight upon society, because they contribute nothing yet cost the taxpayer billions. Liberal opinion holds they are victims, because society has failed to provide them with opportunities to develop their potential.

Most of us would say this is nonsense. Rather, they are victims of a perverted social ethos, which elevates personal freedom to an absolute, and denies the underclass the discipline — tough love — which alone might enable some of its members to escape from the swamp of dependency in which they live."

England is much further along the road than the U.S. is in becoming the Great Nanny State, but the impulses are definitely on our shores. Not surprisingly, when you spoil children you often get brats. When a lot of brats of whatever age don't get their way, you get a mob. And when you get a mob, there is no telling what you will get next. England had a sobering demonstration of what can happen last summer and there is a good chance that we are next. I am praying for bad weather.

www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2024284/UK-riots-2011-Liberal-dogma-spawned-generation-brutalised-youths.html#ixzz1aOFM5EM3

(Tip o' the hat to Glenn Geisendorfer)

Alien Rubbish

Richard Dawkins is a prominent English scientist and atheist who has been trashing Christianity for years. Now he has taken on a new target: Islam. 

Recently he visited several Islamic schools and was aghast that it was the Koran uber alles. In his inimitable fashion, he proclaimed after his outing:

"It's just utterly deplorable. These are now British children who are having their minds stuffed with alien rubbish."

I have to give the guy props for consistency, but I am afraid that he is about to find out that Muslims aren't the passive targets that Christians are. I hope he is listening because the more fanatical Muslims have a nasty habit of whacking off the ears (or worse) of people with whom they disagree. Can you hear me now?

 

 www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2046715/Richard-Dawkins-attacks-alien-rubbish-taught-Muslim-faith-schools.html#ixzz1aO8smSyj

Res Ipsa Loquitur

That's Latin for "The thing speaks for itself." That's right, man - I don't need no stinkin' oil!

(Tip o' the hat to Nate Lyons)

Road Apples

Horsepucky! The folks "occupying" Wall Street and conducting tribal rituals are no more representative of 99% of this country than George Soros, who for all we know is financing this goat rodeo. The cry of this mob is "Gimme!" as in gimme a job, gimme health care, gimme a house, basically gimme all your money! Americans have always been builders - if something needs doing, they roll up there sleeves and get it done. They do not wait around for anybody - least of all the government - to give them anything. No, the Wall Street occupiers are cry babies who have never grown up. They want someone to take care of them and attend to their every whim. Whine, whine, whine, whine. Grow up and join the other 99% of Americans - you have nothing to lose but your Pampers.