Out with the Old

Change is rippling through the Arab world, first in Tunisia and now in Egypt and possibly Yemen. The question is what - or who - comes in with the new?

Tunisia has had only two leaders since 1956. Both have been dedicated to economic progress and have taken a firm stand against Islamic extremists. Mubarak in Egypt is now 82 years old and took power after Sadat was assassinated. He also kept the lid on Islamic extremists, but looked the other way as long as they did not actively plot against his government. Yemen - well Yemen is a little backward, say like the 1300s.

The problem with massive unrest is that it opens the door to the most ruthless factions operating in a country. The group that can move fastest to eliminate rivals and seize the reins of power comes out on top. The Bolsheviks did this in Russia, the Nazis in Germany, and now there is a distinct possibility of this happening in the three Arab states named above. Which brings us to the Muslim Brotherhood and al-Qaeda, both of which are ruthless enough to seize the brass ring.

The Muslim Brotherhood is active in all three countries, as well as the U.S. Founded in Egypt in 1928,  it is very secretive in its operations, and Sharia (think Iran) in its religious orientation. Its goal is to establish a worldwide Islamic hegemony that is based on Sharia law. Terror is alright as long as it is directed at Jews and Americans, but the MB parts company with al-Qaeda over the use of indiscriminate terror that kills fellow Muslims. That has not stopped them, however,  from tactical operations with al-Qaeda where they think their interests coincide. Another distinction from al-Qaeda is that it has a social policy arm that seeks to help poor Arabs. It is these differences that make me place my money on the MB because it will have more popular support.

The counterweight to these two groups is the military. Many of the army officers in these countries have received extensive Western military training. They view themselves as a professional class, are anti-extremist by nature, and tend to be somewhat more secular in worldview than their fellow citizens. They also have the serious weaponry if they have the will to use it. Mubarak did but he's old. If he still has enough gas left to deal with the unrest this time, rest assured that it will come again and at some point he simply will not have enough left to handle the pressure. Is there a young officer in the Egyptian Army capable of doing the job? Time will tell. In the meantime, look for these three groups to be slugging it out with each other to see what significant parts of the Arab world will look like for the next 50 years.