Saturday, July 3, 2010

Further Thoughts on Foreclosures

Thinking further about Oregon being #3 nationally for home foreclosures, it is of course related to jobs. I am betting, however, that another structural factor is in play in this ranking that either hasn't been analyzed or at least has not been publicized - Oregon's land use system.

As the picture shows, Oregon law since 1975 has required cities to adopt urban growth boundaries (UGB) and prohibit most urban development outside them for the purpose of preserving farm and timber lands. The problem when you do this is that it causes an artificial price bubble for the land within the UGB. Basic economics says that when there is a shortage of a desired good or service (in this case developable land), the price will go up. In Oregon's case, buildable land prices went up not just because people had money from full employment, but they also went even higher because of the restricted supply of land. Unfortunately, the higher prices go up, the farther they fall in bad times and, voila - Oregon gets hit with a double whammy.

Objective economic study would have to be done to validate my hypothesis, but studies already exist showing higher home prices in Oregon, particularly the Portland area, than in other similar parts of the country. There is no free lunch. At some point there is always a collision between politics and the real world of economics. I'm guessing we are looking at the wreck.

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