Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Putin's Achilles Heel

It's easy to view Russia through the filter of the USSR. There are similarities to be sure, but overall modern Russia has some glaring structural weaknesses. 

For example, it has a rapidly aging and declining population with a birthrate that cannot turn this around anytime in the near term. Another key structural weakness is that its economy is almost totally dependent on oil and natural gas exports and therein lies the leverage the U.S. could use to checkmate Putin's ambitions.

Mark Nuckols' article in Townhall says that by slapping an export penalty on Russian energy exports, Russia's economy would come to a screeching halt. Russia needs oil at $100+/barrel to balance its budget and with the world economy sinking, oil prices are likely to sag below that level too. Of course, a little Mideast crisis could alter this - note to Obama as to where Putin may be heading. Cutting off its access to the world economy would also severely crimp its expansionist dreams. This would be a harder sell to our European partners because their economies are quite dependent on Russian oil and gas. Which brings us to the next point.

In the longer term, ramping up U.S. energy exports to Europe would deal a severe bow to the Russians. They cannot compete with us on price and float their own economy, so let the competition begin! Further, making fracking technology available in Europe would allow it to begin to develop this resource locally. As an example, Poland has known deposits of natural gas but it is uneconomic to extract using traditional drilling technology, but the newer fracking technology could change all this. 

Like it or not, the U.S. is a great power - we will never be Belgium. We should use the power judiciously and for the general good, as well as our own interest, although must keep in mind that we cannot save the world singlehandedly. If we walk away from this responsibility, however, others will fill the vacuum and their motives most assuredly will not be as benign. The world that results will also not be even as benign as it is today, such as it is.  

townhall.com/columnists/marknuckols/2014/03/24/russias-feeble-economy-n1813683

No comments:

Post a Comment